Clearing the Weeds: Rural America's Battle to Reclaim Democracy
MAGA Loses in Rural America: By The Book
In this release:
Clearing the Weeds: Rural America's Battle to Reclaim Democracy
MAGA Jerrod Sessler Got 32% Of The Vote And This Democrat Is Excited!
Rural Americans United 50% +1!
Clearing the Weeds: Rural America's Battle to Reclaim Democracy
Kamala Harris and Walz will win in November, and we will rejoice as our democracy is saved. However, the damage runs deep, and it will be in rural America where we are most tested. The seeds of noxious weeds, planted by Trump in the fertile soils abandoned by national and urban Democrats, have taken root in rural areas. Anyone who has farmed or tended a garden knows how relentless and indestructible weeds can be, using every possible means to destroy the plants around them—blocking light, monopolizing resources, and literally strangling the life out of healthy plants. Meanwhile, healthy plants focus their energy on adding value to the environment around them through beauty, compatibility with other plants, erosion protection, and food production.
In rural areas, MAGA and Christian Nationalism have deeply infiltrated, taking root in our city councils and school boards. They have sown seeds of lies and hate so effectively that the truth struggles to germinate, let alone thrive. But the people of rural America are the best equipped to eradicate these noxious weeds. With hoes, shovels, and spades, non-specific and pre-emergent herbicides, organic and natural barriers, and strong backs, we will clear our gardens and fields, allowing them to thrive and become bountiful again. We must, however, remain vigilant, as even the slightest breeze can carry these pernicious seeds back onto our most precious soil.
MAGA Jerrod Sessler Got 32% Of The Vote And This Democrat Is Excited!
Rural Americans all across this great nation are putting their hopes in their neighbors to do the right thing and put their energy, money, and vote behind democracy. To keep our spirits high, we must always be looking for that path to victory. Often, it is clouded by the media’s desire to focus on the negative, divisiveness, and our weaknesses. But as I illustrate in the short article below, there is always a path to victory for those who believe, as I do, that no matter how dark the night, the sun will rise in the morning.
There’s a lot to unpack from the primary and many excellent races to discuss, but I’ll focus on Congressional Districts 4 and 5 and the pivotal Legislative District 14. Please note that the votes are not finalized, but after analyzing the numbers as they come in and with some help from our friends at Progressive Strategies Northwest, I can see a future so bright I’ve gotta wear shades.
Congressional District 4
First, let’s tackle the fear factor associated with Jerrod Sessler’s apparent victory. Here’s a guy with every possible MAGA endorsement, from the Yakima Republican Party to Trump himself, yet he still hasn’t been able to raise any money. He couldn’t raise money for his last campaign in 2022, and he still can’t this time. So how did he do so well? He didn’t! We’ve been tracking MAGA voting for some time now, and it consistently holds at around 28% of voter turnout. This is further confirmed by the turnout in Congressional District 5, where the top Republican received 28% of the vote. These numbers align with expectations, demonstrating consistency in MAGA voting percentages and not an alarming move to a majority of voters.
Additionally, Newhouse’s strategy is to run negative ads against whoever he perceives as his biggest threat. In 2022, it was Culp; this year, it was Smiley, and it was effective. She underperformed in the primary, giving Sessler a slight edge. This strategy by Newhouse gave me a path to clear the primary in 2022 when he saw Culp as his primary threat and, like Smiley, pushed Culp out of the primary with attack ads. If there had been a single Democrat with a viable campaign this primary, we would likely have seen a Democrat in the general this year. Because Newhouse focused on negative ads against Smiley and she against him, they both greatly lowered their voter support. It could very well have ended up as a Democrat against Sessler, as Newhouse and Smiley canceled themselves out, which means a Democrat would have won the general election—just like Maria Perez in Congressional District 3 did in 2022 when she found herself pitted against the rabid MAGA candidate Joe Kent, and nobody but devout MAGA could vote for him, giving her the win. However, that’s not how this primary played out.
Reliable sources have informed me that a high-ranking member of the Washington Democrats advised our two Democratic candidates in Congressional District 4 to both stay in the race and keep a low profile. This advice is baffling, to say the least. I had argued that Democrats didn’t need more candidates; they needed more wins. While we can’t predict the future, the path to victory was always clearer with a single Democratic candidate and a united campaign. Despite this poor advice, the two Democratic candidates, with a combined campaign budget of less than $10,000, still managed to secure 21% of the votes—just 3% behind Newhouse. I repeat, they had less than ten thousand dollars between them (according to FEC July filing data)! If they hadn’t received this misguided advice, they could have combined their efforts, run a single, stronger campaign, and easily picked up the extra 3% of votes needed to advance to the general election, with unified support from Central Washington Democrats.
In the general election, with a sensible candidate facing a MAGA extremist, resources and recognition would have poured in, as we saw in the 2022 race between Democrat Marie Perez and MAGA candidate Joe Kent in Congressional District 3. Most voters find MAGA candidates so repugnant that Independents and moderate Republicans would have likely supported the Democratic candidate. Additionally, in this 2024 race, Sessler has no apparent financial backing, as the GOP is directing all MAGA funds toward supporting Trump. Either of our capable candidates, Mary Baechler or Jane Muchlinski—both of whom would have made exemplary Representatives—could have won and flipped Congressional District 4.
What will happen now in Congressional District 4? There will be no surprises. Sessler will raise little to no money, Newhouse will tap into millions of dollars of PAC and dark money, and Democrats will again save the Republicans by ensuring that Sessler never gets near the “other” Washington.
Congressional District 5
I had written in March about a path to victory for Congressional District 5, and that seems to be holding true. The outcome of the primary shows that Democrat Carmela Conroy will advance to the general and face Republican Michael Baumgartner. Baumgartner holds a predictable 28% of the votes, and when all Republican and Democrat votes are tallied, the score is Democrats 41% and Republicans 59%. This may seem like a large spread, but there are a few counties where picking up percentage points will be easier. These are the counties that were bolstered by the Biden 2020 election, and there’s no reason not to assume that the Harris/Walz ticket won’t have the same energizing effect. The only concern I have is that there will be a repeat of Lisa Brown’s phenomenal 2018 race, where desperately needed resources did not come in until it appeared she was going to win, and only then did deep-pocketed Dems and the DCCC step in to grab the glory—too late. This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to flip this district. Will the DCCC and other national organizations recognize the potential or continue to squander resources on outrageous high-dollar races in faraway places?
Legislative District 14
We have such great hope for Legislative District 14. It could prove to be the foundation from which to build Democratic representation east of the Cascades. This race is far more than just three brilliant candidates: Maria Beltran, Chelsea Dimas, and Ana Ruiz-Kennedy. It is our future and a path to a supermajority in the Washington State Legislature.
All three candidates achieved astounding results in that they broke the Democrat ceiling. Democrats in Central Washington have a difficult time achieving more than 32-35% of the votes. But early primary reporting shows they have shattered that ceiling! So what does this mean? There was great hope that this would result from increased Latino voter turnout, but preliminary data suggests this is not true. In fact, it seems that Latino voter turnout is down from the 2020 primary, and White voter turnout is up. Perhaps the candidates didn’t break the Democrat ceiling as much as they broke through the “White voter” ceiling. However, if these numbers hold, it is critical that we continue to rethink how to reach and encourage marginalized voters. Rural Americans United is focused on this by reaching groups that would otherwise be left out by immunizing against far-right rhetoric, providing education and representation, and using innovative strategies such as newly registered voter outreach, direct-to-IP communications, ballot harvesting, and more.
Maria Beltran is running a textbook campaign that is impressive on every level. She is up against an incumbent that is benign, making it challenging to differentiate; he’s an okay guy. Following Maria’s race closely, it is hard to comment on it. She is tops on all news cycles, solid fundraising, playing a great ground game, and her digital is spot on. She came into this race with a lot of political experience, and it shows. I wish her the best of luck because she already has everything else going for her.
Chelsea Dimas is running a unique campaign that has registered on many people's radars. Her visibility, pledge to run a clean campaign, and her energetic campaign team have propelled her easily into the general election, where her opponent is Gloria Mendoza, the fallen mayor of Grandview. Whereas Chelsea has pledged to run a clean campaign, Mendoza has been shoveling the vilest of lies into the mailboxes of constituents in Legislative District 14. Mendoza is armed with a sizable campaign fund and is using it to attack Dimas rather than promote her own qualifications. Attacking Dimas is really the only strategy Mendoza has because it would take a search-and-rescue team months to find any redeeming quality about herself to promote. Dimas’ challenge going forward will be to win over Republican Andy Kalinen’s voters. He was the third candidate going into the primary and secured a sizable, but insufficient, number of votes to move to the general.
Ana Ruiz-Kennedy is on fire! Ruiz-Kennedy was the only candidate that secured significant voter numbers in all four counties that comprise Legislative District 14: Franklin, Benton, Klickitat, and Yakima. Technically, Beltran also secured votes in all four counties, but there wasn’t a third candidate in her race, so it would not have been otherwise. An obstacle for Ruiz-Kennedy is undoing her Republican opponent Debra Manjarrez’s strong showing in Benton County. Manjarrez was the past chair of the Yakima County Republicans, which suggests strong north end of district connections, but it is unclear how she did so well in Ruiz-Kennedy’s backyard of Benton County.
This is a pivotal moment for Democrats in Washington State. The outcomes in these districts could shape the political landscape for years to come. I urge you to get involved—whether it’s through volunteering, donating to these campaigns, or spreading the word to friends and family. Every effort counts. Let’s make sure that these candidates have the resources and support they need to succeed. Together, we can turn this bright future into reality.
Rural Americans United’s Strategy: Close The Gap
Winning an election comes down to fifty percent plus one (50% +1). In rural America, Republicans usually dominate, making it tough for Democrats to reach that critical vote total. Here's how we can change that and secure the additional voters we need to win.
The Challenge
Republicans and Democrats use similar campaign strategies: activating their base and canvassing houses with a political lean in their direction. Democrats often avoid canvassing Republican-leaning houses due to safety concerns, while MAGA supporters aggressively campaign at stores, street corners, and even on your lawn.
The Strategy
Rural Americans United focuses on three key tactics to identify, persuade, and engage voters.
1. Immunize Against Far-Right Rhetoric
We target newly registered voters with alternative information and ongoing dialogue to counter MAGA influence. Our Newly Registered Voter Outreach program ensures that every new voter in Central and Eastern Washington is contacted and informed about voting. With over 30,000 newly registered voters expected by the next election, this is a significant voting block that moves us closer to our goal of 50% +1.
2. Educate and Represent
In areas like Yakima County, 80% of people have never heard a pro-Democratic message. This lack of representation leads to isolation and hopelessness among Democrats. Rural Americans United launched the first-ever pro-Democratic messaging campaign in Central Washington, reaching over twenty million radio impressions. We aim to continue this effort by purchasing local radio and print businesses, bringing back sensible politics and countering far-right gaslighting. By providing alternative viewpoints, we energize Democrats and inform independents and moderate Republicans.
3. Embrace Ballot Harvesting
Ballot harvesting involves collecting ballots from voters at non-official locations. Republicans excel at this, while Democrats do not. Washington State's ambiguous laws on ballot harvesting mean anyone with a receptacle can do it. We should encourage ballot harvesting at churches, community organizations, bars, and clubs. Instead of relying solely on ballot parties, we should incentivize people to bring their ballots to places they already frequent, increasing voter turnout. Security is crucial, as MAGA supporters may attempt to disrupt the process. We're working with music venues to create ballot harvest events targeting youth, using incentives like free drinks and no cover charges.
The Goal
Getting out the vote isn't enough. Progressives and moderates need new, cost-effective ways to engage a larger portion of the voter base. Rural Americans United is working hard to close the gap and reach 50% +1, with the support of many dedicated organizations and individuals.
Let's unite, innovate, and secure those crucial votes to make a real difference in our communities. Together, we can create a brighter future for all.